I know I know. Barack Obama is unelectable because he has a crazy preacher. We all know that never stops the GOP but that's not the issue. The world isn't fair. The playing field isn't level. Whatever. He'll need to get over it and take one for the team. Blah blah blah.
Problem is, some folks think he's being treated unfairly.
WHO? Two guesses.
Here's a hint. It's the Democratic base. The most loyal group of democrats by far.
See, McClatchy did some reportin and some folks, African-Americans in particular I guess, might not think all of this piling on Rev. Wright and guilt by association is fair. We don't see Hagee, Parsley, or Coe paraded around talking about hating Catholics, Gays, Arabs, or loving Nazis & dictators.
So what you say?! Too bad!
Well the problem we have is this.
If it looks like Obama has been pushed out over Rev. Wright even if he has the most delegates at the end, well, that most loyal demographic, the one that no Democrat could win the White House without, might just sit this one out.
"It would hurt me not to vote," said Charles Clark, an Indianapolis retiree. He's thinking about leaving the presidential box on his ballot blank this fall if Hillary Clinton is the Democrats' nominee."There was a heck of a push made so blacks could vote. I know that," he said. "But it would also be very unfair if they pushed Barack Obama to the side."
Well that's just one guy.
What do the experts say?
If Obama isn't the nominee, "there would be a significant number of African-Americans who would stay home. They're not voting for (presumptive Republican nominee) John McCain," predicted David Bositis, a senior analyst at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, which researches black voting trends.Todd Shaw, a University of South Carolina political science professor, agreed, citing a groundswell of African-American disenchantment with both Bill and Hillary Clinton. They're particularly annoyed by Bill Clinton's performance during the South Carolina primary and by Clinton supporter James Carville's description of New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, a Latino, as "Judas" for endorsing Obama over Hillary Clinton.
"The comment plays very badly with African-Americans and Latinos," Shaw said. "They remind them of 'Look what we've done for you; you should stay in line.' That doesn't sit well with voters of color. They view it as Northern machine politics or Old South boss politics."
Hunter Bacot, an associate professor of political science at Elon University in North Carolina, saw another piece of political history haunting black Obama backers.
"There's a sentiment among blacks that they've been taken for granted by the Democratic Party," Bacot said. "If Obama loses, it's as though their candidate's victory was overturned."
Hm.
What does the DNC say?
Democratic National Committee officials acknowledge that there could be some falloff of African-American voters if Obama isn't the nominee. Still, Karen Finney, a DNC spokeswoman, said the party expects African-Americans -- frustrated by the war in Iraq, the sagging economy and high gasoline prices -- to go to the polls in their usual numbers when they compare whomever the Democratic nominee is with McCain.
Oops. See comment above about taking African-American voters for granted.
Not smart.
Now if the delegate leader at the end of this thing is the nominee it seems to me that, though there might be some hurt feelings, and some voters might stay home, there shouldn't be a big enough effect to cost Democrats the White House.
But if the opposite happens. If the game was played straight and the pledged delegate leader isn't the nominee. There's going to be hell to pay. Hell with a capital H and that rhymes with McCain as President.
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